From the Desk

Recent Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 8/4/2026

U.S. equity markets are moving higher this morning, extending Monday's rally as investors continue to respond favorably to easing tensions in the Middle East, declining oil prices, and a solid earnings backdrop. All three major averages are up at least 0.9% in early trading. Investor sentiment has been supported by ongoing discussions aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which have contributed to another decline in crude oil prices and reduced concerns about energy-driven inflation. Strong corporate earnings have also supported the advance, while market participants continue to monitor a busy week of labor market data ahead of Friday's employment report.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 5.6% in June to $73.3 billion from a revised $77.6 billion in May, as imports declined more sharply than exports. Total exports fell 0.9% to $314.7 billion, while imports declined 1.8% to $388.0 billion. The improvement reflected a smaller goods deficit and a slightly larger services surplus. 

The latest JOLTS report pointed to continued moderation in labor demand. Job openings totaled 7.36 million in June, down from 7.54 million in May, though the level remained around economists' expectations. Total separations were little changed at 5.4 million, while hires were unchanged at 5.3 million, indicating that labor market activity remains relatively stable despite a gradual cooling in employer demand for workers.