From the Desk

Recent Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 7/1/2025

U.S. stocks are mixed to begin the second half of 2025 after rallying to finish June. The S&P 500 notched another record high close on Monday, while the Nasdaq again reached a new intraday record high. The DJIA is higher this morning, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this morning that the Fed would have cut rates by now if not for tariff uncertainty and that a “strong majority” of Fed officials expect to cut rates in 2025.

Looking at economic data today, JOLTS job openings increased to 7.769 million in May, above expectations of 7.320 million. Openings were at 7.395 million last month. Hires and separations were little changed during the month.

Elsewhere, the ISM Manufacturing PMI edged higher to a reading of 49.0% in June, remaining in contraction territory for a fourth straight month. New orders and employment contracted, while production and prices increased. Wrapping up economic data, construction spending fell 0.3% in May, versus expectations of falling 0.2%.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher this morning, with the 2-year Treasury up 5.6 basis points to 3.78%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 5.5 basis points to 3.85%, and the 10-year Treasury yield up 3.5 basis points to 4.26%.