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Recent Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey - 9/30/2020
U.S. equities are higher this morning on increased optimism about further coronavirus stimulus, though stocks are still poised for the first negative month since March. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that negotiations will be given “one more serious try” and Mnuchin is hopeful a deal can get done. Looking at economic data this morning, the ADP Employment Report showed that private payrolls added 749,000 jobs in September, beating expectations of 600,000, behind a surge in manufacturing hires.
Elsewhere, pending home sales jumped 8.8% in August, reaching a record high pace, and prices are 24.2% higher than a year ago. The latest revision of U.S. GDP was slightly improved at -31.4% for the second quarter, though growth was still the lowest on record. Lastly, MBA mortgage applications fell 4.8% last week despite the average interest rate of a 30-year mortgage falling five basis points to a new record low of 3.05%.
U.S. Treasury yields are higher this morning, with the 2-year Treasury up 0.4 basis points to 0.13%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 2.0 basis points to 0.27% and the 10-year Treasury yield up 3.6 basis points to 0.68%. Short-term advance rates are lower today.