From the Desk

Recent Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 2/14/2025

U.S. stocks are mixed to open the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are higher this morning, while the DJIA is lower. All three major averages are on pace to finish the week higher, led by the Nasdaq increasing over 2%. Sentiment increased to finish the week as the U.S. announced a plan to impose tariffs yesterday, instead of any immediate tariffs as expected.

Looking at economic data today, retail sales fell 0.9% in January, outpacing expectations of falling 0.2%. Excluding autos, retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.4% during the month, missing expectations of increasing 0.3%. The control group of sales, which most closely resemble the consumer spending component of U.S. GDP, decreased 0.8%.

Import prices rose 0.3% in January, just below expectations of 0.4% and the largest monthly increase since April 2024. Over the last year, import prices were up 1.9%, down from 2.3% the previous month. Export prices jumped 1.3% for the month, the biggest monthly gain since May 2022, and 2.7% over the last year, the most since December 2022.

Industrial production rose 0.5% in January, above estimates of 0.3% and the third straight positive reading. Manufacturing output fell 0.1%, versus expectations of a 0.1% increase. Capacity utilization increased to 77.8%, the highest reading since August 2024.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning, with the 2-year Treasury down 5.2 basis points to 4.26%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 6.6 basis points to 4.32%, and the 10-year Treasury yield down 5.7 basis points to 4.56%. Advance rates are lower today.