From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Goedken, Institutional Strategies Director - 10/15/2026
Treasury yields are lower this morning following a volatile 24 hours in the rates market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 5.33% following Wednesday's hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics before reversing course and falling near 5.20% by the close. Equity markets were broadly lower Wednesday, with the Nasdaq declining 1.9%, the S&P 500 falling 1.1%, and the Dow slipping 0.1%.
At the open today, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 5.07%, approximately 12 basis points below yesterday's close. Equity markets were mixed, with the Dow opening higher while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened lower as weakness in technology and AI-related shares continued. WTI Crude Oil remains near $95 per barrel after reaching $105.83 on September 15.
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales Report from the U.S. Census Bureau showed retail sales increased 0.8% in September, exceeding expectations and following a revised 1.3% gain in August. The Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Report from the Department of Labor showed initial jobless claims totaled 199,000, slightly below expectations and little changed from the prior week's revised reading of 198,000.
The Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics increased 1.3% in September and 6.3% over the past year. Those were the largest monthly and annual increases since March 2022 and December 2022, respectively. Core PPI less food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% during the month and 5.0% from a year earlier. Energy remained the primary driver of wholesale inflation. The final demand energy index increased 10.8%, including a 20.3% jump in gasoline prices.
Fed expectations continue to shift. CME FedWatch data imply a 29.3% probability of a rate increase at the October 28 FOMC meeting. By the December meeting, markets are pricing an 89.4% probability of at least one additional rate hike this year. Market pricing has largely shifted from an October move to a December increase.
Subscribe to our daily From the Desk newsletter to get economic commentaries and updated market rates sent directly to your inbox.
Subscribe Here