From the Desk

Recent Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 4/30/2025

U.S. stocks are lower Wednesday as investors react to the first GDP report of 2025. Stocks have clawed back some of the opening losses, but all three major averages are still down at least 1% and are trending to finish the month on a sour note. All three major averages finished higher on Tuesday as the U.S. said the first trade deal was imminent but declined to name the country.

Looking at economic data today, the U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% during the first quarter, down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter and missing expectations of 0.4% growth. It was the first negative quarter since the first quarter of 2022. Imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped by 41.3% during the quarter. Consumer spending slowed to 1.8%, down from 4.0% and the slowest since the second quarter of 2023. Core PCE rose 3.5% during the quarter, up from 2.6% the previous quarter.

The ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 62,000 in April, nearly half the expectation 120,000 and the smallest gain since July. The March report was revised down by 9,000 to 147,000. The report also showed that wage gains for those who stayed at their job increased 4.5% over the last year, down 0.1% from last month.

Wrapping up data, pending home sales rose 6.1% in March, above expectations of 1.0% and the biggest gain since December 2023. Lastly, the Employment Cost Index increased 0.9% during the first quarter, the same as the previous quarter. Wages and salaries rose 0.8% during the quarter, down from 1.0% last quarter.

U.S. Treasury yields are lower this morning this morning, with the 2-year Treasury down 4.3% basis points to 3.62%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 2.8 basis points to 3.75%, and the 10-year Treasury yield down 0.2 basis points to 4.17%. The shortest-term advance rates are higher, while the rest of the curve is lower.