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From the Desk - Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, VP, Member Strategies - 10/15/2021

U.S. stocks are higher Friday morning as retail sales were much stronger than expected in September. Retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.7% for the month, easily beating expectations of falling 0.2%. Excluding autos, retail sales jumped 0.8%, better than the 0.5% gain expected. Core sales, which most closely resemble the consumer spending component of GDP, also rose 0.8% for the month.

Elsewhere, import prices were up 0.4% in September, just below forecasted, and prices were up 9.2% over the past year. Excluding fuel, import prices were unchanged in September. Export prices rose 0.1% for the month and 16.0% year-over-year.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index unexpectedly posted a small decline in the preliminary October reading. The index fell to a reading of 71.4 for the month, the second-lowest reading since 2011. Both the current conditions index and expectations index posted small declines.

U.S. Treasury yields are higher this morning, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 2.5 basis points to 0.38%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 3.5 basis points to 1.09% and the 10-year Treasury yield up 4.3 basis points to 1.56%. Long-term advance rates are higher today.

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