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From the Desk - Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey - 2/25/2021

U.S. stocks opened lower Thursday despite solid economic data and Treasury yields continue to rise. Initial jobless claims fell much more than expected to 730,000 last week, the first decline in five weeks, and fell below 800,000 for the first time in seven weeks. Continuing claims fell to 4.42 million, the sixth straight weekly decline.

The second revision of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised one-tenth higher to 4.1% despite personal consumption begin revised slightly lower. Core PCE, a preferred measure of inflation by the Fed, was unchanged at 1.4%.

Pending home sales fell 2.8% in January, versus expectations of remaining unchanged, as the supply of available houses remains low.

Durable goods orders jumped 3.4% in the preliminary January reading, the biggest increase in six months. Core capital goods, seen as a barometer of business investment, rose 0.5% for the month.

U.S. Treasury yields are surging this morning, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 3.9 basis points to 0.17%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 10.1 basis points to 0.73% and the 10-year Treasury yield up 8.1 basis points to 1.47%. Long-term advance rates are higher today.

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