From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 11/20/2025
U.S. stocks jumped Thursday morning as Nvidia earnings renewed confidence in AI. All three major averages are up at least 1.5% in early trading. The FOMC minutes yesterday showed that many committee members were against a December rate cut. Markets currently project that there is a 58% chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the last meeting of the year, a stark difference from the projection after the conclusion of the October meeting.
Looking at economic data, the delayed September jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, up from a 4,000 loss in August. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.8% over the last year.
Initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 220,000 in the first print of claims data since the government shutdown. Economists had forecasted 230,000 initial claims last week. Continuing claims increased by 28,000 to 1.974 million.
Lastly, existing home sales rose 1.2% in the October report to an annual rate of 4.1 million. The median sales price increased to $415,200, up 2.1% from a year ago. The inventory of homes for sale fell 0.7% during the month to 1.52 million units.
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