From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 3/13/2026
U.S. stocks opened higher Friday morning but have given up some of those initial gains. Oil prices pulled back as investors await the latest news on the war with Iran. In what has been a volatile week for stocks, the DJIA and S&P 500 are tracking to post a weekly loss, while the Nasdaq is slightly higher.
The second estimate of U.S. real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed annualized growth of 0.7%, revised down from the 1.4% advance estimate and below the consensus expectation of 1.5%. The downward revision reflected weaker consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, while imports declined less than previously estimated.
In January, the PCE index rose 0.3% from the prior month and 2.8% year-over-year, both in line with expectations and slightly below December’s 2.9% annual rate. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.1% over the last year, matching forecasts and edging higher from December’s 3.0% annual pace.
Personal income rose 0.4% in January, up from December’s 0.3% increase, while disposable personal income grew 0.9%. Personal consumption increased 0.4%, consistent with December’s pace and consensus expectations. The personal savings rate was 4.5%.
Durable goods orders were unchanged in January, missing expectations of 1.3%. Excluding transportation, orders were up 0.4%. Capital goods orders were also unchanged for the month.
The January JOLTS report showed 6.9 million job openings, up from 6.6 million the previous month. Openings had been expected to increase to 6.7 million. Total separations and hires were little changed for the month.
Subscribe to our daily From the Desk newsletter to get economic commentaries and updated advance rates sent directly to your inbox.
Subscribe Here