From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 2/10/2026
U.S. stocks are higher this morning as the market looks to continue its winning streak. All three major averages finished higher on Monday, the second straight daily increase for each. The DJIA has set a new record intraday high each of the last three days.
Looking at economic data today, December retail sales were unchanged, following a 0.6% increase in November and coming in below expectations for a 0.4% rise. On a yearly basis, sales were up 2.4%. Excluding autos, retail sales were also unchanged for the month. The control group of sales, which most closely resemble personal consumption in GDP, fell 0.1% during the month.
Import prices increased 0.1% in December, while export prices advanced 0.3%. Over the past year, import prices were unchanged, and export prices rose 3.1%. Excluding petroleum, import prices increased 0.4% for the month.
The Employment Cost Index rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 0.8% the previous quarter and slightly below expectations. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% over the quarter, with benefit costs rising by the same amount. On a year-over-year basis, total employment costs were up 3.4%.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 0.2 points in January to 99.3, remaining above its long-term average of 98. Of the ten index components, three improved and seven declined. The Uncertainty Index increased to 91, and 31% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill, down two points from December.
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