From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 1/29/2026
U.S. stocks are lower in early trading Thursday as investors review the Federal Reserve’s policy decision from Wednesday and continue to monitor corporate earnings. As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged yesterday. Comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell did little to alter rate projections for the year, with traders still expecting two rate cuts. Stocks finished relatively unchanged on Wednesday.
Economic data released this morning showed that initial jobless claims totaled 209,000 last week, down 1,000 from the prior week. Initial claims were expected to fall to 205,000. Continuing jobless claims declined by 38,000 to 1.827 million.
Revised productivity and labor cost data showed that nonfarm business productivity increased at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, unchanged from the initial reading. Unit labor costs declined 1.9% over the same period. Productivity growth from a year earlier was 1.9%, and unit labor costs rose 1.3% on a year‑over‑year basis.
The U.S. trade deficit nearly doubled to $56.8 billion in the delayed November report, the largest relative monthly increase in 34 years. Exports declined 3.6% to $292.1 billion, while imports increased 5.0% to $348.9 billion.
Subscribe to our daily From the Desk newsletter to get economic commentaries and updated advance rates sent directly to your inbox.
Subscribe Here