From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 12/23/2025
U.S. stocks are little changed Tuesday morning as investors digest the latest round of delayed economic data. All three major averages were higher on Monday. The latest GDP reading has markets believing a rate cut to begin 2026 is less likely, with traders favoring the Fed leaving rates unchanged at both the January and March meetings.
Looking at economic data today, U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% during the third quarter according to the initial estimate. Economists had forecasted a 3.2% increase. Consumer spending was up 3.5% during the quarter. Exports, which were up 8.8%, were also a main contributor. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 2.9% during the quarter, as expected.
Industrial production was up 0.2% in November and fell 0.1% in October, as both estimates were released this morning due to the government shutdown. Manufacturing was unchanged in November after falling 0.4% in October. Capacity utilization finished November at 76.0%.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.8 points to a reading of 89.1 in December, below expectations. The November reading was revised higher to 92.9. The Presentation Situation Index dropped 9.5 points to 116.8, while the Expectations Index was unchanged at 70.7.
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