From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 3/18/2026
U.S. stocks are falling Wednesday as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation reading. Oil prices continue to rise after Israel hit Iran’s largest oil processing facility, leading to heightened fears of retaliatory attacks. Investors will also be focused on the conclusion of the FOMC meeting later today. No rate change is expected, but markets will be looking for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.7% in February, coming in well above expectations for a 0.3% increase. On a year-over-year basis, PPI advanced 3.4%, the highest level since February 2025 and up from the prior month’s revised annual pace of 2.8%. Core PPI increased 0.5% for the month, versus expectations for a 0.3% gain, while the annual core reading increased 3.9% compared with a prior reading of 3.7%.
MBA mortgage applications fell 10.9% in the week ending March 13. Refinance activity was down 19%, while purchase applications were up 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The average contract interest rate for 30-year conforming mortgages increased to 6.30%, up from 6.19% the prior week.
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