From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Hofer, Member Strategies Manager - 9/17/2025
U.S. stocks are mixed this morning as investors await the Feds rate decision later today. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool is predicting a 25 bps rate cut in September is a given, and a 50 bps cut has a 6% chance. Given the certainty of a quarter bps rate cut, investors will be focused on the Feds dot plot and their projected rate moves over the next year or so. Regarding economic releases today, MBA mortgage applications jumped 29.7% over the prior week due to interest rates falling, homeowners refinancing. The Refinance Index increased 58% while the Purchase Index increased just 3%. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan dropped 10 bps to 6.39% and 5/1 ARMs decreased 12 bps to 5.65%, with ARMs share of refinances reaching its highest level since 2008.
Lastly, building permits declined 3.7% in August to an annual rate of 1,312,000. Year-over year, permits are down 11.1%. Housing starts also fell posting an 8.5% decline in August and a year-over-year decline of 6.0%.
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