From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies Manager - 9/16/2025
U.S. stocks are lower Tuesday morning as the two-day FOMC meeting begins today. Markets currently place the odds at 96% the Fed will cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow. Domestic stocks were higher Monday, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,600 for the first time ever.
Looking at economic data today, retail sales rose 0.6% in August, doubling expectations and the same as July. It was the third straight month sales were higher. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.7%. The control group of sales, which most closely resemble the consumer spending component of GDP, were also up 0.7%.
Industrial production increased 0.1% in August, versus expectations of falling 0.1%. Manufacturing output increased 0.2% for the month. Capacity utilization was unchanged at 77.4%, as expected.
Wrapping up data, import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% in August and were unchanged over the last year. Excluding fuel, prices were up 0.4% last month. Export prices were up 0.3% for the month and 3.4% over the last year. The NAHB Housing Market Index was unchanged at a reading of 32 in September. The component measuring buyer traffic edged lower, current sales conditions remained unchanged, and future sales expectations rose two points to a reading of 45, the highest level since March.
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