From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 2/19/2026
U.S. stocks opened lower Thursday as traders monitor conflict between the U.S. and Iran. All three major averages are coming off a winning session yesterday. The release of the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday showed policymakers were divided on the path forward for monetary policy.
Initial jobless claims fell sharply in the latest weekly report, dropping to 206,000 for the week ending February 14, a decline of 23,000 from the prior week’s revised level. This marked the lowest reading of the year and came in well below economist expectations of 223,000. Continuing claims moved modestly higher, rising to 1.869 million for the week ending February 7.
The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December, increasing to $70.3?billion from $53.0?billion in November. This represents a 32.6% month-over-month increase in the deficit as imports rose 3.6% and exports declined 1.7%. The trade deficit shrunk 0.2% to $901.5 billion in 2025.
Pending home sales declined in December, falling 9.3% from the prior month and marking the steepest monthly drop since April 2020. The report also showed that contract signings fell across all four regions, with the Midwest and West experiencing the largest decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index slipped to 71.8, its lowest level since July. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were down 3.0%.
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