From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Scott Hofer, Member Strategies Manager - 12/18/2025
U.S. stocks are higher this morning due to a lower-than-expected inflation reading. The November consumer price index (CPI) release, which provided delayed and limited data, posted a 2.7% year-over-year increase, below expectations of 3.1% and down from the September reading of 3.0%. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, was also lower at 2.6%, besting expectations of 3.0% and lower than September’s reading of 3.0%. From September 2025 to November 2025, the CPI and Core CPI both increased 0.2%, compared to estimates of 0.3%. Data was not collected in October due to the government shutdown.
Next, initial jobless claims came in at 224,000, in line with estimates and lower than last weeks revised reading of 237,000. The 4-week average moving average ticked higher to 217,500. Ongoing claims totaled 1,897,000, a slight increase but lower than expected.
Last, but not least, the Philadelphia fed manufacturing index indicated a weak December reading of -10.2, down from -1.7 in November and significantly missing expectations of 2.5. Current general activity fell and remained negative for the third consecutive month. However, new orders and shipments turned positive.
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