From the Desk - Economic Commentary
Brandon Casey, Member Strategies - 4/1/2026
U.S. stocks are higher again Wednesday as investors remained hopeful an end to the war with Iran is near. President Trump said Iran had asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, though the U.S. wants the Straight of Horuz open. The president also said he believes troops would be out of Iran in two or three weeks. All three major averages were up 2.5% yesterday, posting the biggest single day increase since May 2025.
Private payroll growth moderated in March, though not as much as expected, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Private employers added 62,000 jobs during the month, reflecting slower hiring momentum relative to recent averages. Annual pay growth for job-stayers remained steady at 4.5%, while wage gains for job-changers accelerated.
Consumer spending rebounded in February, with retail sales rising 0.6% following a modest decline in January. Sales excluding autos increased 0.5%. The control group of sales, which most closely resemble the consumer spending component of U.S. GDP, were also up 0.5% for the month.
Manufacturing conditions improved modestly in March, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.7, signaling a third consecutive month of expansion. New orders and production strengthened, while supplier delivery times lengthened. Employment remained in contraction territory and pricing pressures persisted.
Mortgage activity weakened further in the latest MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Total applications declined 10.4% for the week, marking the third consecutive double-digit decrease. Refinance activity fell 17% and purchase applications were down 3%. The report also showed that the average interest rate of a conforming 30-year mortgage rose 14 basis points to 6.57%.
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