From the Desk

Recent Economic Commentary

Brandon Casey, Member Strategist - 5/2/2024

U.S. stocks are higher Thursday morning as investors continue to monitor corporate earnings. All three major averages were up over 1% during trading on Wednesday before plummeting at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. The DJIA still finished higher, while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell essentially ruled at further rate hikes, but expectations are still for just one rate hike in 2024.

Looking at economic data today, initial jobless claims were unchanged at 208,000. Initial claims had been forecasted to increase to 212,000. Continuing claims were also unchanged at 1.77 million.

Elsewhere, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 0.1% in March to $69.4 billion, slightly above expectations of $69.1 billion. The prior month saw an upward revision from $68.9 billion to $69.5 billion. Imports were down 1.6% and exports were down 2.0% during the month.

Lastly, U.S. productivity growth slowed during the first quarter, increasing 0.3% at an annual rate. Productivity was up 3.5% during the fourth quarter of 2023. Unit labor costs rose 4.7% during the quarter, with compensation increasing 5.0%.

U.S. Treasury yields are steeper this morning, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 1.2 basis points to 4.93%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 1.4 basis points to 4.63%, and the 10-year Treasury yield up 3.5 basis points to 4.63%. The shortest-term advance rates are higher, while the rest of the curve is mostly lower.